Likening the situation in the country to a "social emergency", Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Wednesday made it clear that the nationwide lockdown to contain the spread of Covid-19 cannot be lifted in one go on April 14, asserting that the priority of his government is to "save each and every life".
There is a sudden realisation in party circles that prolonged court cases could damage its standing, both among the cadres and voters, observes N Sathiya Moorthy.
In a nearly 25-minute televised address to the nation, Modi said implementation of the lockdown will be strictly ensured in its second phase and detailed guidelines will be brought out on Wednesday to ensure that outbreak does not spread to new areas.
The Tamil chief minister suffered a heart attack on Sunday evening.
Trinamool Congress described it as "Black Monday" and a dark day for the country's constitution, the idea of India, and the Rajya Sabha
Slogans of 'Rahul ji, we are with you' and 'Please do not resign' rang through the air.
The Hindutva social media continues to present the DMK especially as anti-god, anti-Hindu and anti-Brahmin. The strategy did not work in the past, it has not worked in the present, and would not work in the future, as a massive vote-getter, asserts N Sathiya Moorthy.
Calculated or otherwise, if Azhagiri's firing of the first salvo after Karunanidhi's death does not create some space for him to politico-electorally exploit at a later date, there may not be any space left for him at all, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
The Tamil Nadu voter may not be in the mood to test new talent, not when the state and the people are going through unprecedented and unanticipated crises, of which coronavirus is only the first. All of it boils down to an election between the ruling AIADMK and the Opposition DMK next year, with small-timers, had-been parties and promised parties left on the sidelines, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
In a state where Hindu social identity continues to remain in the overarching Dravida umbrella, the 'Hindutva' political identity does not have the same, or even near-similar electoral purchase, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
Polling in Vellore was scheduled on April 18.
Strategy or confusion? The Tamil Nadu BJP has many reasons to feel let down by Prime Minister Modi's whistlestop tour to the state on Tuesday, says R Ramasubramanian.
'I had to submit my resignation from the BJP after just two weeks because they were very regressive.' 'There was no space for a free thinking individual.'
As the Opposition leader in the state assembly, M K Stalin has to fend off the ruling AIADMK on the one hand and prevent the re-emergence of a non-Dravidian Opposition on the other -- but his immediate challenge comes from within, in the form of his wheelchair-bound octogenarian party leader and father M Karunanidhi, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
This time round, even 'petrol coupons' were reportedly distributed for those attending campaign rallies, especially those addressed by top leaders, cutting across party lines. If this owed to the rising cost of petrol and diesel -- which is a poll issue this time -- there were the customary coupons for 'quarter' (liquor bottle size) and non-vegetarian biryani. Some media reports claimed that some of these 'crowds' attended more than one political rally on the same day in the last week, and at times for rival political parties in adjoining constituencies or districts, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
On its own or with allies the Congress has a strong presence in states that account for a total of 253 LS seats, or 20 short of the magic figure of 272 required to form a government at the Centre. So what is Mamata Banerjee talking about, asks N Sathiya Moorthy.
As of now, there is nothing to suggest that the 'Michaelpatti episode' has the potential to polarise Dravidian Tamil Nadu on religious lines, observes N Sathiya Moorthy.
Greetings from all quarters, including his political rivals, poured in on Monday for Prime Minister Narendra Modi who celebrated his 68th birthday in his parliamentary constituency Varanasi.
It does not stop here, though. According to field information, state ministers, AIADMK candidates and campaigners are asking BJP cadres accompanying them not to carry party flags at common rallies and also avoid their saffron shawl on those occasions. BJP cadres are also asked to stay out of the common campaign when it enters a minority-dominated areas, especially of Muslims, and re-join later, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
The most experienced administrator in the country seems to have sat back and allowed bureaucrats and policemen to manage the lockdown, observes Jyoti Punwani.
But not for too long, as TTV Dinakaran can still play spoilsport, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
FIR says that the officials by virtue of influence exercised over them by Karti, not only ignored the serious illegality on the part of INX Media on both the counts but also deliberately showed undue favours to INX Group.
Karunanidhi was convinced that using the 2G cases against the DMK and reopening the fodder case against Lalu Prasad Yadav were products of the Congress leadership's short-sightedness. A revealing excerpt from A S Panneerselvan's Karunanidhi: A Life.
In an age when the electorate is increasingly impatient and changes governments every 5 years, how did the Tamil Nadu chief minister beat anti-incumbency?
Second-line AIADMK leaders and cadres alike say that by starting the talks first with the BJP and committing the party to an alliance without discussing seat-sharing, the leadership might have commenced the coalition discourse at the wrong end. According to them, even 20 seats for the BJP may be too many, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
Counting of votes is underway for four Lok Sabha and eight assembly Constituencies, spread across six states and one Union Territory where by-elections were held on Saturday.
With almost all opposition parties too backing the 'Bharat bandh' and many announcing parallel protests in support of the farmers, the Centre has issued an advisory directing the states and Union Territories to tighten security and ensure peace is maintained.
New Union minister L Murugan's declaration of Kongu Nadu as his native place, instead of Tamil Nadu, may be part of a grand BJP strategy to create new states out of existing ones, particularly those that have anti-BJP governments, mulls N Sathiya Moorthy.
V P Duraisamy's exit will in no way upset the poll scene in western Tamil Nadu, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
The EC's actions remain to be seen on 'money-hoarding and transportation' for poll-time use. The question remains if the polity in the state would push the EC so far as to use the countermanding option. Even then EC would have to push its constitutional powers to find a way to prevent 'money-power' in the state's elections, says N Sathiya Moorthy
The Rs 89 crore question before Tamil Nadu now is what shape a central intervention would take, and if there would be any role whatsoever for acting governor, Ch Vidyasagar Rao, in it, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
The judiciary has often shied away from contesting the speaker's right or that of the legislature, but it has not always avoided taking a close look at the processes employed and arrive at conclusions that are binding on all concerned, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
Will the AIADMK acknowledge the role of CAA and the anti-CAA protests, both inside the state and outside, as among the causes for the current electoral reversal, as many in the party now want? It is unlikely to be so, but then the pressure will increase on the leadership to reassess the BJP alliance at one level and the 'blind support' for Prime Minister Narendra Modi's controversial policies on the other, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
'It may take the AIADMK much more convincing than already, not only to try and bring around even the one-time Muslim voters of the party. 'More importantly, the party leadership may find it even more difficult to convince traditional party voters and cadres, who had admired Jaya's nonchalance to the party and leader ruling the Centre,' says N Sathiya Moorthy.
Rajini's call may now force other political parties, including the DMK and the Congress, who are in alliance talks already, to come up with water proposals of their own in their poll manifesto. In a way, this may be a 'tactical victory' for Rajinikanth, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
The fracas between Chief Minister Edappadi K Palaniswami and his deputy O Panneerselvam on Monday over who will be projected as the CM candidate in next year's assembly polls not only points to a possibility of another vertical split in Tamil Nadu's ruling party but will also come as sweet music for the opposition DMK which in the past stood to gain from the AIADMK's squabbles, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
Is anyone in the BJP listening -- to what Nitin Gadkari had to say, but possibly left unsaid? asks N Sathiya Moorthy.
Given the twin embarrassments of a TTV win and party nominee Karu Nagarajan losing his deposit, polling fewer votes than NOTA, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and BJP boss Amit Shah would be pushed to rethink their strategy. Tamil Nadu would thus become a part of the BJP's grander strategy for 2019 rather than a stand-alone affair, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
Assembly elections in Tamil Nadu are centred on chief ministerial candidates of rival parties. When Sasikala cannot contest even a panchayat election for six years after her release, even if she were to have sympathetic backers even among apolitical voters, she does not have any 'transferrable vote-bank' even otherwise for a chief minister candidate of her choice, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
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